yield curve

It's not a stretch to say plenty of market participants are focusing on the inverted yield curve. The scenario where 10-year Treasury yields dip below the yields on two-year notes has been a reliable recession indicator, but another yield scenario may be worth monitoring. What Happened...

U.S. markets fell on Wednesday after the yield on the 10-year Treasury note fell below the yield on 2-year Treasury notes on Wednesday morning for the first time since 2007. According to the San Francisco Fed, each of the nine U.S. recessions that have occurred since 1955 came between six months...

One way to view markets is that they are one giant feedback loop. A reflexive echo chamber, per the description of legendary investor George Soros. And, boy, is today's echo loud. While the Treasury market yield curve has been flattening for months, the final straw for economists landed this...

The Dow Jones Industrial Average opened down more than 400 points on Wednesday after the bond market gave investors a very historically reliable bearish signal. For the first time since 2007, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note fell below the yield on 2-year Treasury notes on Wednesday morning....

Amid a more sanguine outlook for U.S. interest rates this year, investors are revisiting longer-dated bonds and the corresponding exchange traded funds. That doesn't mean the short-duration funds, such as the Schwab Short-Term U.S. Treasury ETF (NYSE:SHCO) should be ignored. What Happened The $...

The S&P 500 took a hard dive on Friday after the bond market finally gave investors the bearish signal they have been fearing for months. For the first time since 2007, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note fell below the yield on 3-month Treasury bills briefly on Friday morning. Yield curve...

Who or what is to blame for Tuesday's market plunge? Jim Cramer says the answer is simple: "The rise of the machines." What Happened U.S. stock indices sold off sharply Tuesday due to algorithmic trading machines that are designed to take action "when something happens to one key...

U.S. investors received a red flag Monday when the yield on five-year Treasury notes dipped below the yield on three-year and two-year Treasury notes for the first time since 2007. This yield curve inversion is often a sign of an imminent economic recession, so here’s a look at what the...

It looks like “second thoughts” time. Markets around the world fell overnight and pressure seemed to spill into the U.S. as investors considered the U.S. trade deal with China and started worrying about details. Before diving back into the deal and its possible market ramifications for...

Bank earnings season is off to a mixed start, and bank investors haven’t gotten the type of returns they had hoped for in a climate of rising interest rates. A major part of the problem: the flat yield curve. Here’s a closer look at what the yield curve is and why it matters. What Is...

The Federal Reserve statement and Chair Janet Yellen made it clear last week that the timing and pace of eventual Fed rate tightening will be data dependent. All key U.S. data will now have a larger than normal impact on bond market volatility. The market will also pay close attention to...