Starbucks Q1 2024 Earnings Preview: Can The Coffee Giant Brew Up Another Beat? (CORRECTED)
Editor’s note: This story has been updated to correct an error regarding the quarter for which Starbucks will report earnings Tuesday; the company will report first-quarter earnings from fiscal year 2024.
Starbucks Corp. (NASDAQ:SBUX), the world-renowned coffeehouse chain, is set to release its first-quarter results Tuesday after the market closes.
After delivering strong performance in the final quarter of 2023, marked by a 9% surge in its stock price, Starbucks now approaches a critical juncture. Since then the company has confronted several challenges, such as the momentum of unionization efforts sparked by the “Red Cup Day” in November and geopolitical clashes, including potential boycott risks in the Middle East.
Investors and analysts are keenly eyeing the upcoming report, with significant expectations set against the backdrop of a 13% decline in the stock since its November peak.
Analysts’ Expectations
- Earnings Per Share (EPS): Wall Street’s median estimate, sourced from Benzinga Pro Platform, anticipates an EPS of $0.93, marking a substantial 25.1% increase from the first quarter of 2023.
- Revenue: Sales projections are brewing at an all-time high of $9.609 billion, a 10.5% jump from the previous year.
- Price Target: The current one-year median price target stands at $107, suggesting a 14% potential upside.
Starbucks’ Historical Price Performance On Earnings Reports
Over the past eight quarters, the company has registered five earnings beats and three misses, coupled with six revenue beats and two misses.
On average, the price reaction to these earnings reports has been positive, with an average one-day price movement of 2.3%. The most significant single-day gain occurred after the second quarter 2022 earnings release when Starbucks shares surged by 9.8%.
However, not all reports led to positive market responses; the most adverse reaction happened following the second quarter 2023 earnings announcement, when Starbucks experienced a sharp 9.2% decline in its stock price, despite reporting both earnings and revenue beats.
Period
Reporting date
EPS Beat/Miss
(Percentage Surprise)Revenue Beat/Miss
1-Day Price Reaction
4Q 2023
11/02/2023
Beat by $0.09 (9.06%)
Beat by $92.82M
+9.5%
3Q 2023
08/01/2023
Beat by $0.05 (5.09%)
Missed by $-113.19M
+0.9%
2Q 2023
05/02/2023
Beat by $0.09 (13.12%)
Beat by $289.14M
-9.2%
1Q 2023
02/02/2023
Missed by $-0.02 (-2.57%)
Missed by $-69.00M
-4.4%
4Q 2022
09/30/2022
Beat by $0.09 (12.48%)
Beat by $98.18M
+8.5%
3Q 2022
06/30/2022
Beat by $0.08 (11.13%)
Beat by $16.63M
+4.3%
2Q 2022
03/31/2022
Missed by $-0.01 (-1.01%)
Beat by $29.58M
+9.8%
1Q 2022
12/31/2021
Missed by $-0.08 (-9.44%)
Beat by $97.19M
-1.04%
Photo: Shutterstock
Latest Ratings for SBUX
| Date | Firm | Action | From | To |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2022 | Deutsche Bank | Maintains | Buy | |
| Feb 2022 | MKM Partners | Maintains | Buy | |
| Feb 2022 | Credit Suisse | Maintains | Outperform |
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