NAFTA Round 3: What US Tech Would Look Like Based On Indigenous Resources

It seems there’s little the Trump Administration could do to surprise these days.

So in the possibility that, in the third round of negotiations for the North American Free Trade Agreement this week, it withdraws from the treaty altogether, it may be worth considering what a self-sufficient United States would look like.

The First Domino: Technology

From a tech perspective, the hit to hardware would have a profound effect downstream.

“Hardware is a key component to collecting data about the real world (computer vision in particular) and much of that hardware is made overseas,” Doug Clinton, managing partner at Loup Ventures, told Benzinga.

The loss of foreign equipment would trickle down to stunt artificial intelligence development, ultimately limiting the American robotics industry, the self-driving car movement and even the expanding world of eSports.

But more basically than that, it would significantly impact consumer electronics, from Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT) to Dolby Laboratories, Inc. (NYSE: DLB) to Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL). “[Apple CEO] Tim Cook has talked about the reality that the U.S. doesn't have the level of trade expertise available overseas for electronic production,” Clinton said.

And Then Commerce

Ultimately, an insular policy would result in higher product costs down the line, affecting retailers, advertisers and everyone in between.

“This could impact Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN) directly in unit sales, although maybe not in gross dollar sales,” Clinton said. “It could also mean a reduction in ad spend on Google [Alphabet Inc (NASDAQ: GOOG) (NASDAQ: GOOGL)] and Facebook Inc (NASDAQ: FB), although rates there might adjust to higher product prices, too. I would assume none of those three are as impacted as Apple.”

And Then Culture

Those rising costs could in turn cause serious social disruptions, particularly in the form of a more exaggerated wealth gap for those with stagnant wages.

At the same time, it could force shifts in culture and how Americans spend their time.

With stakes like this, it might be worth paying attention to the round 3 negotiations hosted by Canada Sept. 23 through Sept. 27.

Related Links:

NAFTA Round One: Gordon Johnson Weighs In On Free Trade’s Effects On Steel, Manufacturing

Who Should Be Most Relieved By NAFTA Continuation