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Chipotle Mexican Grill's Stock Gets Burned For Mixed Q4; Sales Slowdown To Continue, Analysts Say

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Chipotle Mexican Grill's Stock Gets Burned For Mixed Q4; Sales Slowdown To Continue, Analysts Say

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (NYSE:CMG) shares are down Wednesday, after the company announced a revenue miss in the fourth quarter.

The company reported its quarterly results amid an exciting earnings season. Here are some key analyst takeaways.

Stephens On Chipotle Mexican Grill

Analyst Jim Salera maintained an Equal-Weight rating while cutting the price target from $61 to $60.

Chipotle Mexican Grill reported mixed fourth-quarter results, with same-store sales of 5.4% missing consensus of 5.7% but unit development, margins and adjusted earnings coming in better than expected, Salera said in a note. The company opened 119 gross restaurants during the quarter, "modestly ahead of our proprietary unit tracker," he added.

Chipotle Mexican Grill's performance was supported by "durable above peer traffic growth," the analyst stated. Although transactions trends suggest a slowdown in the first half of the year, this is due to "January weather headwinds, difficult y/y laps, and unfavorable calendar shifts," and the company continues to have "one of the clearest lines-of-sight to positive traffic among its peers in FY25," he further wrote.

Check out other analyst stock ratings.

Wedbush On Chipotle Mexican Grill

Analyst Nick Setyan reiterated an Outperform rating, while lowering the price target from $69 to $64.

Chipotle Mexican Grill reported broadly in-line adjusted earnings of 25 cents per share and transaction growth of 4.0%, Setyan said in the note. The company's underlying margins of 24.8% came in higher than consensus of 24.5%, he added.

Management suggested the choppiness in sales at the end of December had continued into January, the analyst stated. "The impact of potential tariffs is 60 bps, which management expects to offset via supply chain initiatives and if necessary, through pricing," he further wrote.

BofA Securities On Chipotle Mexican Grill

Analyst Sara Senatore reaffirmed a Buy rating and price target of $71.

Although Chipotle Mexican Grill's January transaction comp of -2% is likely to fuel concerns around slowing demand, the underlying trends seem stable, Senatore said. Management's guidance of flattish transactions in the first quarter and sequentially slower same-store sales growth in the second quarter could prove "conservative," she added.

"Menu innovation (March launch of hot honey chicken), marketing (more linear TV) and productivity initiatives (store managers as expos improve execution and mix) all leave room for upside to the LSD-MSD comp guide," the analyst wrote. Restaurant margins could be the highest in the second and third quarters "on seasonally higher volumes — despite headwinds from portion control and potential 2Q sales deleverage," she further wrote.

CMG Price Action: Shares of Chipotle Mexican Grill had declined by 2.25% to $57.68 at the time of publication on Wednesday.

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Latest Ratings for CMG

DateFirmActionFromTo
Feb 2022Morgan StanleyMaintainsOverweight
Feb 2022Deutsche BankMaintainsHold
Feb 2022BarclaysMaintainsEqual-Weight

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View the Latest Analyst Ratings

 

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