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Nucor Tops JPMorgan's Metals List, Eyes 67% Surge Thanks To Tariffs

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Nucor Tops JPMorgan's Metals List, Eyes 67% Surge Thanks To Tariffs

Steel stocks are back in the spotlight, and it's not just the furnaces heating up. Since President Donald Trump's late-May announcement of 50% tariffs on imported steel, the sector has re-rated sharply, with JPMorgan highlighting Nucor Corp (NYSE:NUE) as the top pick with a potential 67% upside.

Analyst Bill Peterson says Nucor is best positioned to ride out the latest tariff wave, thanks to its product diversification and lower exposure to value-add sheet, which has recently underperformed. Plate and rebar prices, where Nucor has more skin in the game, are holding up stronger and could provide incremental upside heading into 2026.

Read Also: EXCLUSIVE: Tariff Titans – Why Cleveland-Cliffs, Nucor, Steel Dynamics Could Outmuscle The Competition

Tariff Storm Blowing Cleveland, Steel Dynamics, Commercial Metals Too

The broader sector isn't celebrating just yet. Investors remain cautious, sensing tariff exemptions may still be on the table – particularly for USMCA partners Canada and Mexico. But that hasn’t stopped a short-term pop: NUE is up 10% since the tariffs were announced, outpacing Cleveland-Cliffs Inc (NYSE:CLF), Steel Dynamics Inc (NASDAQ:STLD) and Commercial Metals Co (NYSE:CMC).

JPMorgan isn't expecting a summer rally for steel prices. However, the bank sees a firming price floor, especially with scrap costs easing and mill utilization rising.

Why Nucor Leads The Pack?

Under a scenario with hot-rolled coil stabilizing at $925/ton and rebar near $900/ton, Peterson sees Nucor pulling ahead of the pack.

Utilization upside also favors Nucor, which was running at 80% in the first quarter—compared to Steel Dynamics’ 89% and U.S. Steel Corp's (NYSE:X) Flat-Rolled division’s just 65%.

Steel investors are now facing a tale of two narratives: near-term caution versus long-term potential.

For Peterson, the long game still favors Nucor, especially if the tariffs hold and restocking kicks in later this year.

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Image: Shutterstock

Latest Ratings for NUE

DateFirmActionFromTo
Feb 2022Goldman SachsMaintainsNeutral
Jan 2022Morgan StanleyMaintainsEqual-Weight
Jan 2022Wolfe ResearchDowngradesPeer PerformUnderperform

View More Analyst Ratings for NUE

View the Latest Analyst Ratings

 

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