Tractor Supply Earnings Outlook Brightens With 2025 Profit Growth Potential, Says Analyst

Telsey Advisory Group analyst Joseph Feldman reiterated an Outperform rating on the shares of Tractor Supply Co (NASDAQ:TSCO) with a price forecast of $67.

The company is scheduled to report its first-quarter FY25 earnings on April 24.

Tractor Supply’s sales are projected to grow 4.8% to $3.6 billion in the upcoming quarter, with comparable sales rising 1.3%, slightly ahead of the 1.0% FactSet consensus, said the analyst.

The optimistic outlook is driven by improved weather conditions and the company's continued market share gains.

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Despite a flat retail landscape and easing COVID-19 pandemic-era comparisons, weaker inflation may impact average transaction size, reflecting broader economic uncertainty, the analyst wrote.

Gross margin is expected to rise by 98 basis points to 36.3%, driven by better supply chain performance and a shift toward higher-margin private label and media segments.

But, ongoing strategic investments like adding a new distribution center are projected to increase SG&A costs by roughly 250 basis points to 28.7%, leading to an anticipated 60 basis point decline in operating margin to 7.6%, said the analyst.

Analysts reaffirm a 2025 EPS estimate of $2.20 for Tractor Supply, above the FactSet consensus of $2.16 and within company guidance.

The outlook sees potential gains in the second half of the year as market conditions stabilize. The long-term thesis remains bullish, backed by the retailer’s “Life Out Here 2030” strategy.

TSCO Price Action: Tractor Supply Co. shares closed Thursday up 1.58% at $50.14.

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