Flu, Swine Flu, and Anti-Viral Prescriptions Well Under Norms

Pharmaceutical investors counting on a strong flu season and sales of antivirals like Tamiflu, Amantadine, and Relenza may want to prepare for disappointment… almost all of them are below the norms as well as below expectations according to data from Nataxis Bleichroeder.

Amantadine prescriptions have been under 2007’s levels since early December, and Tamiflu prescriptions fell under 2007’s totals as of the first week of January. Relenza prescriptions in 2009 are still stronger than 2007’s and 2008’s comparable season totals, but are still less than 1/6 of what they were with October’s peak.

The CDC reports that influenza reports are anywhere from ¼ to ¾ less than totals from recent years. The trend suggests that immunization efforts – and immunity following actually illness – from mid-2009 have staved off flu season this year. Or, perhaps flu season has simply not arrived yet; maybe it won’t this year.