'Trump Tariffs Could Blow Up Apple': Analyst Estimates $39.5 Billion Impact

Analysts weigh in on the impact newly imposed reciprocal tariffs by President Donald Trump on other countries and the effect it could have on Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL) and its products, such as the iPhone.

The Apple Analysts: Rosenblatt analyst Barton Crockett maintained a Buy rating on Apple with a $263 price target.

Tigress Financial analyst Ivan Feinseth reiterated a Strong Buy rating on Apple and raised the price target from $295 to $300.

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Rosenblatt on AAPL: American icon Apple could be severely impacted by the tariffs, Crockett said in a new investor note.

"Trump tariffs could blow up Apple," Crockett said.

The analyst said the quick math suggests Apple could face $39.5 billion of tariff costs.

"We believe that close to 100% of iPhones sold in the U.S. are made in China, 90% of Macs, 80% of iPads, 90% of Apple Watches and 35% of Airpods."

The analyst said these products are also made in Vietnam. Tariffs on China and Vietnam are 54% and 46%, respectively.

"This looks pretty tough."

Without Apple raising prices, the analyst estimates that operating profits and earnings per share could be down by around 32% annually. Raising prices could offset demand, the analyst warned.

"We note that Apple's main rival in the U.S., Samsung, is based in South Korea upon which Trump just levied 25% tariffs. So Samsung, as it stands now, could be meaningfully competitively advantaged, tariff-wise."

Crockett also questions if China will retaliate and try to hurt Apple in the country to help its own local smartphone makers.

The analyst said Apple moving iPhone production to the U.S. would be "hard to do economically" and can't happen for years.

Tigress on AAPL: Services growth and the integration of Apple Intelligence are future catalysts for Apple, Feinseth writes in a new investor note.

The analyst said these two items and Apple's growing customer base will "continue to drive ongoing revenue and cash flow growth."

"AAPL's ongoing integration of Apple Intelligence will increasingly enhance the cadence of new product introductions and drive Services growth and further growth of its ecosystem," Feinseth said.

Feinseth said Apple Intelligence will help grow new product sales and Services revenue in the future.

"Strength in Services revenue continues to be driven by expanded application and services with new offerings in Apple Arcade games and new programming on Fitness+."

The analyst highlighted Apple's installed base of active devices hitting an all-time high in the most recently reported quarter.

"AAPL remains a must-own stock driven by its industry leadership position and significant Economic Earnings power, brand equity, loyal customer base, cash generation ability, increasingly strong balance sheet, and ability to innovate to create new products as it expands its ecosystem."

AAPL Price Action: Apple stock is down 8.73% to $204.31 on Thursday at publication versus a 52-week trading range of $164.08 to $260.09. Apple stock is down 15.6% year-to-date in 2025.

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