Affirm's Strategy Could Evolve Beyond Walmart Deal Towards Full Financial Services, Says Bullish Analyst

Shares of Affirm Holdings Inc (NASDAQ: AFRM) have been climbing after the company announced the extension of its partnership with Walmart Inc (NYSE: WMT).

The focus is likely to shift from BNPL and partnerships like Walmart to Affirm becoming "a full-fledged financial services firm with direct deposits, savings, etc.," according to Mizuho Securities.

The Affirm Analyst: Dan Dolev maintained a Buy rating for Affirm, while raising the price target from $30 to $65.

The Affirm Thesis: The company’s gross merchandize value (GMV) could surge in fiscal 2026, driven by the rapid adoption of the Affirm Card and “an estimated 3-4x uptick in GMV per card, per user for direct deposit users,” Dolev said in the note.

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“At its analyst day this fall, AFRM management laid out a medium-term target of $50bn in GMV, up from $20bn in FY23, implying low-20’s CAGR,” the analyst wrote. “Our Blue Sky scenario of ~$55bn shows GMV could potentially be in excess of AFRM's $50bn mid-term guide, or $10-15bn more GMV vs. our current model,” he added.

“Our Blue Sky scenario assumes 35% card attach rate (vs. 25% in our base-case) by FY26,” Dolev further stated.

AFRM Price Action: Shares of Affirm were down 6.15% to $47.35 at the time of publication on Wednesday.

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