Alnylam Pharma The New 'Alpha Generator' Stock Pick At FBR

On both an absolute and relative basis, Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ: ALNY)’s pipeline is a winner.

“We have conviction that Alnylam’s hATTR franchise will dominate that of Ionis,” FBR analyst Madhu Kumar wrote in a Monday note.

Ionis Pharmaceuticals Inc (NASDAQ: IONS) will launch inotersen for hereditary transthyretin amyloidosis with polyneuropathy (hATTR-PN) in 2018, and Kumar considers the rival treatment at risk against Alnylam’s patents, second-rate to Alnylam’s ALN-TTRsc02 product, and inferior to Alnylam’s patisiran in efficacy and safety.

“In light of these and other factors, we consider it reasonably possible that Ionis may not find a partner for inotersen, risking the ASO’s [antisense oligonucleotide] likelihood of reaching the market,” Kumar wrote (see his track record here).

In other words, Alnylam could be killing competition without yet pushing products to market.

Upcoming Catalysts

Alnylam is expected to file a New Drug Application for patisiran, its lead asset, in late 2017. The drug’s phase 3 study for hATTR-PN delivered positive top-line results in September, and pending data for polyneuropathy and cardiomyopathy indications could expand its total addressable market from 10,000 global patients to 25,000, by Kumar’s estimates.

The firm will soon begin trials for three candidates — fitusiran for hemophilia, inclisiran for hypercholesterolemia and givosiran for acute intermittent porphyria — the prospects of which are not factored into valuation.

Bottom Line

FBR initiated coverage on the stock with a Buy rating, bolstering the firm’s ratio to 14 Buys, three Holds and one Sell. Kumar also issued a $150 price target on the stock and forecasted 2017 revenue of $125 million against last year’s $47.2 million.

“Alnylam represents a foundational biopharma investment,” he wrote.

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