The Search For Silver Linings In The Cloud Of Negative Novavax News

It’s hard to find a silver lining following news that sends a stock crashing 84.5 percent in one day. However, following devastating news that the Phase III RESOLVE trial of its RSV vaccine failed to deliver the desired results, Novavax, Inc. (NASDAQ: NVAX) shareholders are looking for any reason to stay positive on the decimated stock.

According to CNBC’s Meg Tirrell, the company is still hopeful on several fronts. First, Novavax claims it will be testing a vaccine for Zika virus on non-human primates “very soon.” In addition, the company is simply looking for funding for its Ebola vaccine, which it claims is “the best.”

Understandably, Wall Street is skeptical. The RSV news was followed by a string of downgrades and aggressive price target reductions among analysts covering Novavax’s stock.

Related Link: After Phase 3 Novavax Trial Misses Endpoints, Piper Downgrades Despite Remaining Vaccine Efforts

Wedbush analyst Heather Behanna downgraded Novavax from Outperform to Neutral and lowered the firm’s price target from $14 to $2. It terms of the future, Behanna believes “one option could be an adaptive design to account for variability in RSV or a focus on cumulative data over more than one season.” Wedbush is not factoring these possibilities into its current model.

Citi analyst Joel Beatty also downgraded the stock from Buy to Neutral and slashed his price target from $12 to $1.50. City also greatly reduced its probability of success for Novavax’s maternal RSV vaccine from 60 percent to 20 percent and for its older adult RSV vaccine from 70 percent to 10 percent. Novavax optimists might take comfort in the fact that 10–20 percent is a far cry from zero.

Finally, Piper Jaffray analyst Edward Tenthoff downgraded Novavax from Overweight to Neutral and cut his price target from $14 to $1. Tenthoff noted that the company will continue to work on its RSV vaccine, but the Zika vaccine could be a wildcard. “This vaccine could potentially receive government or other forms of non-dilutive funding,” he said.

Novavax shares have rebounded more than 10 percent in early Monday trading, although much of the move could be the result of short covering following Friday’s bog drop.

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