Argus On Retail, 'We Think It's Going To Be A Good Christmas'

Despite all the uncertainty surrounding the retail environment currently, Argus Research is optimistic about the upcoming holiday season.

"We think it's going to be a good Christmas," said Argus Research on a conference call held Tuesday.

U.S. household incomes increasing for the first time in nearly 10 years certainly provides some reason for the optimistic sentiment regarding solid retail sales come December. 2015 saw the highest rate of increase in U.S. household income since the Census Bureau started releasing data in 1967.

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"Consumers are benefiting from jobs growth, wage gains, rising home and asset values and cheap gasoline, and those are all recipes for a robust retail spending environment. But consumers learned thriftiness during the recession and they haven't forgotten it," said Argus Director of Research Jim Kelleher.

Discount retailers have been performing well recently and could continue to be an attractive investment due to the new consumer mentality that emerged after the recession.

"It used to be brick and mortar vs e-commerce but now there's a kind of blurring between them as well," said Kelleher.

Four things you need to know about the retail and holiday season according to Argus:

1. They think it's going to be a good Christmas.
2. By retailer and by product, innovation will distinguish who will be the winners and who will be the losers.
3. If you're using retail sales as an economic indicator, you need to be very flexible and have a very flexible measure.
4. Vulnerability to internet competition is the No. 1 driver of valuation.

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