China, U.S. Hot Rolled Coil Steel Spread Explodes; Cowen Forecasts Short Life Expectancy
The Market Vectors Steel (ETF) (NYSE: SLX) has gained nearly 30 percent thus far in 2016 as China transitions away from investment mode and into consumption mode. The spread of Chinese vs U.S. Hot Rolled Coil (HRC) has swelled above recent highs. The China/U.S. spread now stands around $242 and Europe/HS spread hovers around $170.
The spike in Chinese HRC and iron ore is not expected to last long, according to Cowen & Co's Anthony Rizzuto Jr.
He said prices are unlikely to remain above average over the longer term. The on-going efforts to contain the HRC dumping experienced since 2014 may have little impact on price here in the United States should the Chinese ship products to another country, which then in turn displaces product to the United States, resulting in increased supply driving prices lower.
Rizzuto Jr. maintains AK Steel Holding Corporation (NYSE: AKS), Nucor Corporation (NYSE: NUE), ArcelorMittal SA (ADR) (NYSE: MT) and United States Steel Corporation (NYSE: X) at Market Perform.
He maintains Steel Dynamics, Inc. (NASDAQ: STLD) and Reliance Steel & Aluminum Co (NYSE: RS) at Outperform.
Latest Ratings for AKS
| Date | Firm | Action | From | To |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2020 | CFRA | Upgrades | Hold | Buy |
| Dec 2019 | UBS | Upgrades | Sell | Neutral |
| Dec 2019 | JP Morgan | Upgrades | Underweight | Neutral |
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