The Comprehensive Apple Bull/Bear Breakdown From Goldman Sachs

In a report published Thursday, Goldman Sachs provides an update on its Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) “scenario analysis and tactical map for 2015.” According to the firm, the risk-reward profile is more balanced, but upside persists.

Let's dig into the breakdown.

“Bull case: $250.0bn CY15 revenue, $10.13 CY15 EPS, $172 implied valuation”

Within Goldman Sachs’ bull case scenario, the analysts take a considerably more optimistic view than their base case -- as noted in the figures below. The key drivers in Goldman's bullish scenario are:

• iPhone: 232.9 million units in calendar 2015, assuming several tailwinds.
• iPhone: 46.7 percent gross margin in calendar 2015 (up from base case assumption of 46.1 percent). “This is primarily driven by the increased mix of the higher-margin iPhone 6 Plus as well as continued cost declines as volume ramps. This more than offsets the FX pressures that weigh on our base and bear case scenarios.”
• iPad/Mac: robust unit growth in 2015, to 64.9 million/21.7 million units.
• Apple Watch: 20.8 million units in 2015; the bull case “includes a very optimistic view of Apple Watch traction.”
• Buybacks: $48 billion in 2015

“Bear case: $216.8bn CY15 revenue, $7.92 CY15 EPS, $95 implied valuation”

The bear case scenario takes a “more muted view of iPhone units and GM as well as our [the analysts’] outlook for iPad, Mac, Apple Watch. We also temper our assumptions for Apple’s share repurchase program within our bear case.”

The key drivers in this scenario are:

• iPhone: 203.6 million units in calendar 2015.
• iPhone: 44.4 percent gross margin in 2015, “driven primarily by several factors including: (1) Greater-than-expected FX pressure; (2) the lack of a significant GM ramp across the cycle; (3) a lower mix of iPhone 6 Plus.”
• iPad/Mac: 60.4 million/20.3 million units in 2015, assuming that “the iPad business continues to decline on a unit basis in CY2015 and that Mac units only increase by a modest 4% y/y.” The firm also factors in FX-driven headwinds to gross margins within both segments in its bear case.
• Apple Watch: 11.6 million units in 2015.
• Buybacks: $34 billion in 2015.