Chipotle Mexican Grill Q4 Earnings Preview: New Store Figures, Comparable Sales On Watch

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (NYSE:CMG) is set to report its fourth-quarter earnings after Tuesday's closing bell. Here's a look at what to watch in the report. 

What To Watch: Investors will be watching Chipotle's average restaurant sales figures which came in at $3.08 million in the fourth quarter of 2023 and comparable store sales which grew 8.4% in the same quarter last year. 

Chipotle outperformed competitors in terms of customer visits with year-over-year visit growth in each month of 2024, according to data from Placer.ai. 

Stifel analysts released a preview note on Sunday and expect a "relatively in-line" quarter from the fast-casual chain. The analysts highlighted Chipotle's operational execution and product innovation, including its new Smoked Brisket offering which Stifel sees positively impacting overall margin performance.  

Stifel analysts maintained a Buy rating and $70 price target on Chipotle shares. 

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Chipotle's aggressive growth strategy will also be in focus with Stifel expecting between 110 and 120 new restaurants in the quarter based on webscraper data suggesting the company ended the year with between 3,725 and 3,735 stores. 

Data from Placer.ai shows that Chipotle's expansion strategy has proven successful with all but eight states in the U.S. showing growth in visits per location in 2024. 

Multiple analysts updated coverage on Chipotle last week ahead of the company's Q4 release: 

• Citigroup analyst Jon Tower maintained Chipotle Mexican Grill with a Buy but lowered the price target from $70 to $69.
• RBC Capital reiterated its Outperform rating and $75 price target.
• Raymond James analyst Brian Vaccaro maintained Chipotle with an Outperform and lowered the price target from $72 to $69.
• Bernstein analysts reiterated Chipotle with an Outperform and maintained a $70 price target on the stock.

According to estimates from Benzinga Pro, analysts expect Chipotle to report earnings of 24 cents per share on quarterly revenue of $2.85 billion. The company has beat earnings expectations in each of the past five quarters but missed revenue estimates slightly last quarter. 

Price Action: According to data from Benzinga Pro, Chipotle Mexican Grill shares are down 0.57% at $58.02 at the time of publication Monday. 

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