First Interest Rate Cut May Not Come Until June 'If At All,' Economist Warns As Fed Holds Steady
The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at a range of 4.25% to 4.5% on Wednesday, following a series of three consecutive rate cuts that began in September. Here's a look at how experts see the Federal Reserve's path ahead.
Expert Ideas: Multiple economists noted that the language in the Fed's policy statement had turned slightly more hawkish as "progress" had been removed.
The statement released Wednesday reads, "Inflation remains somewhat elevated," a change from the prior statement which said that "Inflation has made progress toward the Committee's 2% objective but remains somewhat elevated."
Bill Adams, chief economist for Comerica Bank, said that the Federal Reserve is likely being cautious as they wait to see if policy changes from the Trump administration, including higher tariffs and tighter immigration regulations, lead to higher inflation.
Investors are now pricing in a 30% probability of a rate cut at the Fed's March meeting, a 45% chance in June, a 28.3% chance in September, and a 17% probability of a cut in December.
Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist for RSM, sees the first possible rate cut of 25 basis points coming in June and another quarter-point cut in December.
"We think the first possible date for any rate cuts that might come this year, if at all, is June," Brusuelas said.
Larry Tentarelli, chief technical strategist for Blue Chip Daily Trend Report, called Wednesday's pause from the Fed a "non-event" for markets and echoed Brusuelas' call for two 25-basis point rate cuts, one in June and one in December.
However, he cautioned that "Fed moves will really be based on future incoming payrolls data and inflation data."
Markets React: All major U.S. indices were down on Wednesday with the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY), tracking the S&P 500, down 0.45% at $601.81 and the Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:QQQ), tracking the Nasdaq 100 index, down 0.19% at $520.83.
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